SCIENTISTS believe Redditch has a fairly high chance of remaining a coronavirus hotspot throughout March.
With lockdown measures set to be eased on March 8 and then again on March 29, researchers at the Imperial College London’s have predicted the probability of areas becoming Covid-19 hotspots.
The data has been produced by the Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College, in conjunction with its mathematics department.
It predicts the probability of local authorities recording at least 100 cases per 100,000 people over the coming weeks and becoming a 'hotspot' on its map.
The website predicts a 67 per cent chance Redditch will be a hotspot in the week ending Saturday, March 13.
Wyre Forest is predicted to have a 59 per cent chance, Malvern 43 per cent, Bromsgrove 15 per cent, Wychavon 19 per cent and Worcester 12 per cent.
The following week, for the week ending Saturday, March 20, the website predicts a 54 per cent chance that Redditch will be a Covid hotspot.
That week, nearby Bromsgrove has a 15 per cent probability of becoming a hotspot by that date, Malvern has a 41 per cent chance, Wyre Forest 54 per cent, Wychavon 16 per cent and Worcester 11 per cent.
The predictions are based on reported cases and weekly reported deaths, combined with mathematical modelling, which results in the probability of an area becoming a hotspot in the following weeks.
Coronavirus cases are continuing to fall week on week across Worcestershire. The latest figures show that three of six districts in the county - Redditch, Wyre Forest and Wychavon - still have infection rates over 100 cases per 100,000 people.
The Imperial College modelling suggests cases are set to stay at safe levels throughout March, however the country is set for some lockdown restrictions to be eased which may change this.
From March 8, all schools will open with outdoor after-school sports and activities allowed. Recreation in an outdoor public spaces - such as a park - will be allowed between two people, meaning they would be allowed to sit down for a coffee, drink or picnic.
From March 29 outdoor gatherings of either six people or two households will be allowed. It is understood this will include gatherings in private gardens. Outdoor sports facilities such as tennis or basketball courts will reopen and organised adult and children's sport, such as grassroots football, will also return.
Imperial College states that its projections for hotspots assume no change in interventions and human behaviour has been made since a week before the last observed data.
The college also lists a number of limitations to its predictions.
It explains: "Predictions on this page assume no change in current interventions (lockdowns, school closures, and others) in the local area beyond those already taken about a week before the end of observations.
"An increase in cases in an area can be due to an increase in testing. The model currently does not account for this.
"Each area (local authority) is treated independently apart from the overall Rt estimate for its region. Thus the epidemic in a region is neither affected by nor affects any other region. It also does not include importations from other countries.
"The population within an area is considered to be homogeneous - i.e. all individuals are considered equally likely to be affected by the disease progression."
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